Apple Earnings

This Tuesday Apple is reporting second quarter earnings. I have been debating for a while about whether to start initiating a position in Apple in wake of the significant drop in price. If the price of Apple stays at around $390, I will initiate a position in Apple before earnings for the following reasons:

  • Trading at 6+ times this years earnings if you back out the cash. Hopefully, they can at least maintain earnings over the next couple of years.
  • Limited downside. I do not ses Apple stock dropping below $300. If it drops after earnings, it will allow me to buy at a cheaper price.
  • Low expectations this quarter. Verizon and Cirrus Logic’s results gave investors a peek into what will be a bad quarter by Apple’s standards.
  • Rampant negative sentiment on Apple shares.
  • Apple should announce what they plan to do with its cash pile very soon if not at earnings announcement. A $15 dividend would give the stock a yield around 4%.  A preferred stock would give the biggest boost to the stock price. However, I do not think this will happen.
  • Investors will start focusing on what’s next for Apple after the earnings report. Historically, this is when the stock makes a run. There are plenty of concrete things to look forward to: iPhone 4s, cheaper iPhone, iPhone introduction on China’s largest mobile network, China Mobile.
  • Even talk of potential new products whether it be a tv or watch could be a catalyst to the stock price.
  • Over the next couple of years, a lot of iPhone users 2 year contracts will be expiring which should give a boost to iPhone sales.

What’s preventing me from buying a ton of shares of Apple?

  • Limited upside. I do not see the stock going above $500 in the near term. It is now a value stock as opposed to a growth stock. 
  • Half of revenue dependent on iPhone.
  • If the stock price drops even further it will allow me to buy more shares.

Commonwealth

Commowealth (CWH) board is still battling hedge funds on control of the company. I own a small amount of shares I bought during the financial crisis. There was a good article in barrons this week recapping the battle. I urge any significant holders of the stock to join the battle against the board.

Orchard Supply Hardware Stores

Orchard (OSH) crashed after it hired restructuring lawyers. It trades below $2 now. I shorted at $14, but had to cover once it went below $5. I am still short the other spinoff Sears Hometown (SHOS). However, my brokerage made me cover some shares recently. A lot of value investors are bullish on Sears Hometown, but I have yet to be convinced.

Disclosure: I own CWH 

HypeZero10 Returns 17.1% Last Quarter

For those investors new to HypeZero, we run an automated portfolio of 10 of the best investment ideas from the best hedge funds called HypeZero10.

We take the quarterly holdings of the best hedge funds, and then run our sophisticated algorithm on those holdings to pick the 10 ideas.

This algorithm has returned over 199+% since 2004 exclusive of dividends. A $10,000 investment would be worth almost $30,000 in over 8 years.

For the November 15th to February 15th quarter, HypeZero10 returned 17.1% as compared to 12.9% for the S&P.

Here are the results:

Company Price (Nov 15) Price (Feb 15) Hedge Fund 
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $525.62 $460.16 David Einhorn
Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) $58.48+spinoffs $47.33 Edward Lampert
AIG (AIG) $31.24  $38.35 Bruce Berkowitz 
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $17.89  $21.02 Dan Loeb
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $66.32  $76.54 Warren Buffett 
AutoNation Inc. (AN) $40.28  $46.03 Edward Lampert 
BankUnited, Inc. (BKU) $22.16  $27.57 Wilbur Ross
News Corp. (NWSA) $23.12  $28.90 Donald Yacktman 
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)  $12.88  $19.61 Wilbur Ross
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP) $90.38 $118.87 William Ackman
Return  S&P Return   12.9%

Check out new holdings for the February 15th quarter at HypeZero10

Disclosure: I am long AIG

Insight From Einhorn’s Latest Picks

Greenlight Capital, the hedge fund run by famed investor David Einhorn, just came out with their quarterly letter to share holders. He had interesting comments on some positions:

Apple (AAPL)

Apple is Greenlight’s largest position. Greenlight bought back the Apple shares it had sold in the third quarter. In my last article, I advised readers to stay on the sideline on Apple shares. Obviously, Apple took a big hit today after reporting quarterly results yesterday. Even at $450, I would continue to be cautious and stay on the sideline. If it hits near $400, I will most likely initiate a position, but as I mentioned before this stock does not have huge upside. So, it makes sense to be cautious. 

General Motors (GM)

General Motors is one of Greenlight’s top holdings. He is still bullish on GM even after the recent run up. I agree and am still long GM. It has multiple catalysts:

  • Buy back even more of its shares from the government. They already bought back 11% which should increase eps.
  • Lower pension risks further. It announced last year that Prudential would administer and pay $26 billion of its pension obligations at a cost of $3.5 to $4.5 billion to the company. It can use the excess capital to move more of its pension obligations to Prudential.
  • United States vehicle sales return to a more normalized level as the economy picks up.
  • Europe economy picks up.

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Marvell used to be one of Greenlight’s top holdings. However, the stock has been one of his worst performers. Earnings and revenue have been down. Recently, a jury awarded Carnegie Mellon University (my alma mater) $1 billion for patent infringement. Einhorn thinks that award will be reduced and the market is also discounting a new product cycle. 

I am avoiding Marvell because I am not confident that the patent infringement award will be reduced and do not understand its products well enough to make an investment.

Vodafone (VOD)

Vodafone is by far the most interesting of Einhorn’s stock picks. According to Einhorn:

  • It pays a 7% dividend.
  • It owns 45% of Verizon Wireless.
  • It trades at 12 times cash earnings excluding the Verizon Wireless ownership.

This definitely seems like a great investment. I will look more into Vodafone this weekend and share my findings.

Here is the letter.

Disclosure: I am long GM.

Apple Broken Down

Apple White iPhone

Let me preface this article by saying, I am a fan of Apple (AAPL) products. I own an iPhone, a MacBook Pro, and an iPad Mini. So, I am a bit biased. However, I will be objective as possible when talking about Apple as an investment. 

Apple has been the subject of heated debates from bears and bulls. Let’s first look at the bullish arguments and then the bearish argument. 

Bullish Argument

  • Apple’s valuation is cheap. At around $500/share, it has a market capitalization of around $475 billion. It has a huge cash cushion of around $120 billion. It trades at around 10 times 2013 earnings estimate. This is cheap for a company that has been growing earnings 70% a year over the last 5 years (Source: Yahoo Finance)
  •  The biggest contributor to income, the iPhone, is still the best smartphone in the market.
  • Apple products command premium price and margins.
  • Apple just had a major upgrade cycle, iPhone 5 and iPad Mini just came out.
  • The smartphone revolution is still in its infancy. According to the Business Insider in September, “There are an estimated 6 billion mobile handsets in the world, and only about 1/5th of them are smartphones.”
  • Apple is still not supported by the biggest telecommunications network in China, China Mobile.
  • Apple is working on the next big thing, Apple TV. This could be next catalyst for income and stock price.
  • Once users are in the Apple ecosystem, they tend to buy more products and apps. According to Fortune magazine, Apple is projected to generate $22 billion in App store revenue by 2016.

Bearish Argument

  • Yes, Apple is cheap based on past earnings growth. However, future earnings growth is questionable. It is hard to grow a company earning $40-$50 billion a year much less maintain it. A lot of the cash is overseas and Apple would have to pay taxes to bring it to United States.
  • It is debatable whether iPhone is still the best smartphone. Samsung is catching up or has caught up. The different between iPhone is much smaller than what it used to be a couple of years back.
  • Although, Apple’s premium price and margins have lasted in the pc industry, the smartphone industry is different. It’s a different OS (Windows vs Android) and different manufacturers. Unless, Apple makes much better smartphones, the margins will not last.
  • Apple just had major upgrade cycles, but the changes were not revolutionary. Apple’s products are not matching their hype anymore. The first quarter should be huge, but what about the rest of the year.
  • There are a lot of people without smartphones. However, most of the are not the high income Apple customers. A lot of these customers are in India and China where customers are a lot more cost conscious and will not pay a premium price for Apple products.
  • China Mobile and Apple have been working on a deal for years. Even if the deal goes through, China Mobile has a lot more leverage than other telecommunications networks and the deal will not be as favorable to Apple as with other partners.
  • First, Apple TV has to come out. Once it does, it has to be a success. Even if it is a success and say the product is worth $100 billion. That will only equate to about 20% of Apple’s current worth.
  • A projection of $22 billion generated by the App Store in 2016 is nothing especially when you consider that Apple makes 30% of that revenue. If you factor in taxes, the net income from the App Store comes out to less than $5 billion. This is nothing for company worth $500 billion.

My Take

I believe that people who are predicting Apple to fall below $300/share are foolish. I also believe that people who are predicting Apple to go above $1000/share are foolish.

I see Apple now as a value stock that will trade around the $500 range. To me it does not make sense to buy Apple because its market capitalization is so big. It would take tremendous growth and innovation to move a company worth $500 billion. I have a hard time seeing how Apple can move much higher unless:

  • They maintain their margins and gain market share in the smartphone market.
  • Apple TV is somehow a $100 billion+ product.

Having said that I don’t think there is a huge downside to the stock. I do not see it dropping below $400/share. The $120 billion cash cushion should increase to over $150 billion by the end of fiscal 2013. This should provide downside protection.

Disclosure: I do not own Apple stock.

HypeZero10 Beats S&P By 3.2%

For those investors new to HypeZero, we run an automated portfolio of 10 of the best investment ideas from the best hedge funds called HypeZero10.

We take the quarterly holdings of the best hedge funds, and then run our sophisticated algorithm on those holdings to pick the 10 ideas.

This algorithm has returned over 170+% since 2004 exclusive of dividends. A $10,000 investment would be worth $27,000 in over 8 years.

For the August 15th to November 15th quarter, HypeZero10 was flat as compared to -3.2% for the S&P.

Here are the results:

Company Price (Aug 15) Price (Nov 15) Hedge Fund 
Apple Inc. (AAPL) $630.83 $525.62 David Einhorn
Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) $56.60 $58.48+spinoffs Edward Lampert
AIG (AIG) $34.03 $31.24  Bruce Berkowitz 
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $14.76 $17.89  Dan Loeb
Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) $66.64  $66.32  Warren Buffett 
AutoNation Inc. (AN) $39.53 $40.28  Edward Lampert 
BankUnited, Inc. (BKU) $25.78  $22.16  Wilbur Ross
News Corp. (NWSA) $23.32 $23.12  Donald Yacktman 
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)  $13.41 $12.88  Wilbur Ross
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP) $84.38 $90.38 William Ackman
Return  +0.0% S&P Return -3.2%

Check out new holdings for the November 15th quarter at HypeZero10. I will have more details, but AIG is the top pick as a number of hedge funds are bullish on the stock.

Disclosure: I am long AIG